Over 3.5 goals have been scored in Man City’s last five and Chelsea’s last three games
City have won six and drawn two of the clubs’ meetings since the 2021 Champions League Final
Chelsea have struggled against top-half Premier League teams all season
City’s air of invincibility is long gone
A clash of two inconsistent Premier League heavyweights, Manchester City and Chelsea, is likely to produce plenty of scoring opportunities when they meet at Etihad Stadium on Saturday evening. Both teams are currently unbalanced with City seemingly unable to keep the back door closed when leading games and Chelsea rarely looking safe in defence.
Chelsea have been unable to get the better of Pep Guardiola’s side in eight competitive meetings since they beat them in the 2021 Champions League Final. The Blues of Manchester won the clash opening weekend at Stamford Bridge 2-0 to make it six wins and two draws in their favour since the meeting in Porto.
But City’s air of invincibility has been stripped since that balmy Sunday afternoon and they come into this game off the back of a shocking midweek surrender to Paris Saint-Germain in the Champions League. That 4-2 defeat means next week’s home clash with Club Brugge is more of a priority than this domestic scuffle, albeit this one will have a major say in which of these clubs has a better chance of finishing inside the top four.
Top-10 teams can prove tough for Chelsea
Chelsea should be fresher after a free week, but their inability to convince against top-half Premier League sides this season means I won’t be backing them to get anything in Manchester.
Maresca’s men have failed to win six of their 10 games against clubs currently inside the top-10 and have failed to win their last two – a 2-1 Boxing Day home defeat to Fulham and a recent 2-2 draw at Bournemouth.
City have lost 10 of their last 19 games in all competitions — a shocking run by their standards — although Guardiola’s side have begun to look more like their old selves during a run of three Premier League wins in their last four.
Dias absence ups goal expectation
But the reigning champions can still be prone to crazy capitulations, such as the ending to the Manchester derby, Brentford’s late comeback last week and what happened in Paris. The likely absence of defensive rock Ruben Dias, who came off with a problem at half-time on Wednesday when the score was 0-0, means City’s backline could spring another leak.
They have conceded 29 Premier League goals this term, only five fewer than they did in the whole of last season. Their last five games in all competitions have featured four goals or more while Chelsea’s last three contests have also prodiced over 3.5 goals.
Backing at least four goals looks the standout play here at similar odds to a home win and both may land. Guardiola’s attacking stars appear to be regaining some of their form with Phil Foden back on song and Haaland over his relatively lean spell — enough for them to claim a 3-1 win.